Bayesian Gaydar

Sanjay Srivastava describes The Precisely Fuzzy Science of Gaydar: “…, a quick calculation tells us that for a randomly-selected member of the population, if your gaydar says “GAY” there is a 9% chance that you are right. Eerily accurate? Not so much. If you rely too much on your gaydar, you are going to make a lot of dumb mistakes.”

Tip from Andrew Gelman.